Sugar Trading: Raw vs Refined Sugar Market Guide

Global sugar production exceeds 180 million tonnes annually, with Brazil, India, the EU, Thailand, and China as the largest producers. Brazil alone accounts for roughly 20% of global production and over 40% of exports, making it the dominant force in international sugar trade. Sugar is produced from sugarcane (tropical regions) and sugar beet (temperate regions).

The sugar market is heavily influenced by government policies — subsidies, import tariffs, and ethanol mandates all affect supply and pricing. Brazil's flex-fuel mandate allows sugar mills to switch between sugar and ethanol production based on relative profitability, creating a direct link between sugar and energy markets.

Raw sugar (Sugar No. 11 on ICE) is the partially processed product from sugarcane mills, with a brown color due to remaining molasses. It requires further refining before most end uses. Raw sugar is the most traded form internationally, with the ICE No. 11 contract serving as the global benchmark. Standard specifications include a minimum polarization of 96 degrees.

Refined (white) sugar (Sugar No. 5 on ICE London) is the fully processed product ready for consumption and food manufacturing. The white sugar premium — the price difference between No. 5 and No. 11 — reflects the cost of refining and varies based on refining capacity utilization. Major refining centers include the Middle East (Dubai, Saudi Arabia), North Africa, and Asia.

Brazil exports the majority of global sugar, shipping primarily from Santos, Paranagua, and Maceio ports. Thailand exports from Bangkok and Laem Chabang. India is an intermittent exporter — large crops create exportable surpluses, but government policy determines whether and how much can be exported.

Sugar is shipped in bulk carriers (raw sugar) or containers/bags (refined sugar). Typical bulk cargo sizes range from 12,000 to 50,000 tonnes. Raw sugar shipped in bulk requires specialized handling to prevent moisture absorption and contamination. Container shipments in 50 kg or 1 tonne bags are common for refined sugar destined for retail markets.

Raw sugar is priced on the ICE No. 11 contract (denominated in US cents per pound), the most liquid sugar futures market globally. Refined white sugar is priced on the ICE London No. 5 contract (in USD per tonne). Physical sugar trades at a premium or discount to the relevant futures, depending on quality, origin, and delivery period.

The ethanol parity price — the sugar price at which Brazilian mills are indifferent between producing sugar or ethanol — acts as a floor for sugar prices. When sugar falls below ethanol parity, mills shift to ethanol production, reducing sugar supply. Understanding this relationship is key to forecasting sugar prices.